MAD Macro - Yabba Dabba Doo
No TACO, I’m a Big Mac Guy
Who Wins the AI Race to Go Public?
Yabba Dabba Doo! Trump, “I’m going to bomb Iran back to the Stone Age where they belong”. No TACO for our Big Mac President. Fred Flintstone Trump wants to bomb Iran back to the Stone Age. He might also bomb us back to the 1970’s when the Flintstones were on TV. So much for the “end of the war” rally, it’s back to the Stone Age for the market. Gold is lower which seems odd. I keep waiting for gold to diverge from risk assets, maybe today. The dip in gold might be another buying opportunity. WTI crude oil is making new recent highs on the no-TACO news. The S&P, NASDAQ 99 and DOW futures all failed after testing the 200-day resistance levels yesterday. Fred Flintstone Trump is trying to bomb the market back to the Stone Age.
Elon Galt Musk filed yesterday to take the merged SpaceX-xAI public. I wonder if he timed it on purpose for the same day NASA returned to space. There is a race for AI companies to go public before the private market stops piling cash on the cash- burning bonfires. Sam-I-Am-AI and Saint Dario are also racing to go public this year. At the moment, it looks like Elon Galt Musk is favored to win the race. Sam-I-Am-AI and Saint Dario are tied in a tight race for second place. The WSJ article on the SpaceX filing is linked here. It’s titled, “Musk’s SpaceX Files to Go Public in One of the Biggest IPOs Ever”. Sam-I-Am-AI completed the biggest private funding round ever yesterday. The WSJ article is linked here. It’s titled, “OpenAI Closes Silicon Valley’s Largest-Ever Funding Round”. Meanwhile yesterday, Bloomberg reported that OpenAI is already trading down in the secondary market with no bids in sight. Saint Dario’s Anthropic is trading at a premium in the secondary market with no offers in sight. Sam-I-Am-AI has the biggest cash bonfire, but maybe Saint Dario will finish second in the race to go public.
Markets are lower on Fred Flintstone Trump’s newest threats against Iran. Iran to the Stone Age and us back to the 1970’s stagflation. Buying gold in the 1970’s was a good idea; it might be a good idea again. Crude oil is 8% higher, everything else is lower. I added a chart of London LME aluminum; it’s making new highs. Back to the Stone Age, no more aluminum. The market is closed tomorrow but the unemployment report will be released. Expectations are for a gain of 65,000 in March vs down 92,000 in February.
I updated the U.S. Dollar Index, U.S. 10yr yield, U.S. 10yr-2yr yield spread, WTI crude oil, NY copper, London aluminum, spot gold, spot silver, NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index, bitcoin, Strategy, S&P futures, NASDAQ 99 futures, and DOW futures charts below.
The dollar is stronger and interest rates are higher.
Crude oil is 8% higher. Copper, spot gold, and spot silver are all lower. The NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index is due to open lower. Bitcoin is lower and close to breaking support. Strategy is due to open lower.
S&P, NASDAQ 99 and DOW futures are all sharply lower.
