MAD Macro - The Fourteen Missile Surrender
I A Told Ya I Was Firing Missiles
It’s Easy, Buy War, Sell Peace
The Next MAD Macro will be Thursday 6/26
The Ayatollah calls ahead to say, ”I a tell ya fourteen missiles are a coming” . It was the fourteen missile surrender. Trump excepts the surrender. It’s over, now what happens? Russia, China, Iran and North Korea step back and stop challenging the West. Trump brings world peace through strength. Wow! How confusing for the NYT, Jake the Snake Sullivan and Obama. Trump wins the Nobel Peace Prize. The NYT hires mental health professionals for the newsroom.
Not quite. We still have the Russian-Ukraine war. Maybe Trump actually backs Ukraine and Putin agrees to a reasonable peace settlement. If that happens it will be because of Bibi. Bibi alone took the war to Iran and won. Trump jumped into the war for the victory parade. Putin, Xi, the Ayatollah and the Little Rocket Man back down from challenging the West. The WSJ has a good article in today’s opinion pages by the editorial board, linked here. It’s titled, “Trump and the ’12-Day War’”.
Markets are celebrating the end of the Middle East war this morning. But when the celebration is over, markets will refocus on the budget and the tariffs. We are only two weeks away from Trump’s trade agreement deadline and so far, no agreements. Today, Jay Powell testifies in Washington and he will be accused of not easing because he hates Trump. The dollar is close to making new lows for the year. That’s the big trend this year. I still think the market will pull back this summer as the U.S. confronts the deficit problems and Trump plays hard ball tariff games.
I am having internet issues this morning so some of the charts might look a little different. I updated the U.S. Dollar Index, U.S. 10yr yield, U.S. 10yr-2yr yield spread, WTI crude oil, NY copper, spot gold, S&P futures charts below.
The dollar is challenging the recent lows and interest rates are unchanged.
WTI crude oil is lower after falling sharply yesterday. It is testing the $65 support level. Copper is higher and gold is lower on world peace. The NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index should open lower on the lower gold prices. Bitcoin is higher and Strategy is due to open higher.
S&P, NASDAQ 99 and DOW futures are all higher.
IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AND DEFINITIONS
Unless otherwise stated, Bloomberg is the source of all data and charts.
S&P 500 futures are a type of derivative contract that provides a buyer with an investment priced based on the expectation of the S&P 500 Index’s future value. Nasdaq 100 futures are commodities futures products traded within the equity futures sector. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil is a benchmark used by oil markets, representing oil produced in the U.S. Brent Crude Oil is a blend of crude oil recovered from the North Sea in the early 1960s, whose price is used as a benchmark for the commodity's prices. The U.S. dollar index (USDX) is a measure of the value of the U.S. dollar relative to the value of a basket of currencies of the majority of the U.S.'s most significant trading partners. UBS Bloomberg Constant Maturity Commodity Index is a total return rules-based composite benchmark index diversified across commodity components from within specific sectors. Index performance is not illustrative of fund performance. It is not possible to invest directly in an index.
The information herein represents the opinion of the author(s), an employee of the advisor, but not necessarily those of VanEck. The securities/ financial instruments discussed in this material may not be appropriate for all investors. The appropriateness of a particular investment or strategy will depend on an investor’s individual circumstances and objectives.
This material has been prepared for informational purposes only and is not an offer to buy or sell or a solicitation of any offer to buy or sell any security/financial instrument, or to participate in any trading strategy.
Certain statements contained herein may constitute projections, forecasts and other forward looking statements, which do not reflect actual results, are valid as of the date of this communication and subject to change without notice. Information provided by third party sources are believed to be reliable and have not been independently verified for accuracy or completeness and cannot be guaranteed. VanEck does not guarantee the accuracy of third party data.
All investing is subject to risk, including the possible loss of the money you invest. As with any investment strategy, there is no guarantee that investment objectives will be met and investors may lose money. Diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss in a declining market. Past performance is no guarantee of future performance.