MAD Macro - That's What I Said, Don, Your Fired!
You Can Post Anything You Want, But I’m Not Paying You
Hey Boys, Who Did You Say Was Past Their Prime?
The Next MAD Macro Will Be Friday March 22nd.
Don Lemon started his new media venture by interviewing his new business partner, Elon Galt Musk. I wonder, did Don tell Elon he was past his prime? Aren’t all billionaires bad and past their prime at 50? Or is that just women over 50? Wow, Don, fired before the first show. Might be a new record. Apparently, Elon thought Don was Jeff Zucker in disguise. I know makeup can be very effective but no way Jeff Zucker could look or sound like Don. Don is way too good looking and Jeff is more like a little progressive Napoleon. Don, now that you are officially on Elon’s hate list, maybe CNN will take you back. I know women are not your thing, but remember, do not tell women they are past their prime at 50.
James Mackintosh has a bubble article in today’s WSJ, linked here. It’s titled, “Frothy U.S. Stock Market Just Isn’t Crazy Enough to Be a Bubble”. James should watch out. George Costanza might read his article and pop the non-bubble. Funny thing about the article is when you read it he seems to give solid evidence that this actually might be a bubble of some sort. Anyway, I have no idea, but tomorrow is the Ides of March and March 24th was the high of the last market bubble, the dot-com bubble. Beware of the Ides of March.
While everyone is watching bitcoin, commodities are starting to look very interesting. Gold broke out to new highs this month and is holding the new highs. Copper finally broke out above the $4 level yesterday. On the chart it looks like copper could make a quick technical move to $5. The gold and copper technical breakouts could signify the start of the next leg of a long-term commodity super cycle rally. I have included charts today of the VanEck CMCI Commodity Strategy ETF (CMCI) and the VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX). CMCI has been in a consolidation for 2 years after a very strong post-COVID rally. I think the next leg of a long-term super cycle commodity bull market might be starting. It could be the start of wave 3 in a 5 wave long-term bull market. GDX has been lagging gold, the commodity, badly ever since the Russian invasion of Ukraine. If gold continues higher GDX could be about to rerate and close the valuation gap.
Markets are higher this morning with all of the indexes challenging the all-time highs again. We get retail sales, PPI and weekly jobless claims this morning. It might not matter, the market was not bothered by the stronger than expected CPI report on Tuesday.
I updated the U.S. Dollar Index, U.S. 10yr yield, VanEck CMCI Commodity Strategy ETF, WTI crude oil, copper, spot gold, VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX), bitcoin weekly, S&P futures and NASDAQ 100 futures charts below.
The dollar and interest rates are unchanged in front of this morning’s economic news.
WTI crude oil is higher and trying to breakout above the $80 resistance level. The IEA (International Energy Agency) is now forecasting a supply shortage this year because they now expect OPEC to maintain production cuts for the rest of this year. Gold and copper are close to unchanged. Copper had an important technical breakout above the $4 level yesterday and is holding that level this morning. I included the VanEck CMCI Commodity Strategy ETF highlighting the possible 5 wave count of a long-term super cycle bull market. I also included the VanEck GDX gold miners ETF which looks like it might breakout to the upside of a long-term wedge formation. Bitcoin just keeps on trading higher in a parabolic straight uptrend.
S&P and NASDAQ 100 futures are both higher in front of this morning’s economic news.
IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AND DEFINITIONS
Unless otherwise stated, Bloomberg is the source of all data and charts.
S&P 500 futures are a type of derivative contract that provides a buyer with an investment priced based on the expectation of the S&P 500 Index’s future value. Nasdaq 100 futures are commodities futures products traded within the equity futures sector. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil is a benchmark used by oil markets, representing oil produced in the U.S. Brent Crude Oil is a blend of crude oil recovered from the North Sea in the early 1960s, whose price is used as a benchmark for the commodity's prices. The U.S. dollar index (USDX) is a measure of the value of the U.S. dollar relative to the value of a basket of currencies of the majority of the U.S.'s most significant trading partners. UBS Bloomberg Constant Maturity Commodity Index is a total return rules-based composite benchmark index diversified across commodity components from within specific sectors.
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