MAD Macro - Surprise, Appeasing Maduro Failed
Listen, Sir We Should Let Maduro Sell Us Oil
Stupid Americans Believed Me. Ha, I am Still the President
The Next MAD Macro Will Be Monday 4/22
Tin Man. “Jake, I am still a little confused. I thought you said if we let Maduro sell oil to us we would have lower oil prices and less Venezuelan criminals. The NYT agreed that it was a good idea to help Venezuela. I trust the NYT, but Jake is it working?”
Jake, “We have one more day, let’s wait before we reimpose the Orange Mad King I’s oil sanctions. I still think my friend Nicolas will announce fair elections. Lula told me so.”
Tin Man, “Jake, someone told me your friend Nicolas moved Russian troops to the boarder of Guyana. Why would he do that?”
Jake, “That’s just a little misunderstanding about the borders, sir. It’s nothing to worry about. Lula told me so. Plus I told Nicolas, don’t. That should work.”
Tin Man, “ Jake, I don’t think this “don’t” stuff is working. Jill thinks we need to make some changes.”
Poor Jake. None of his appeasement efforts have worked. They say the definition of crazy is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different outcome. Maybe it’s time to stop the appeasement efforts and retire the word “don’t”. Suddenly today, it looks like something is changing in the Tin Man’s administration. He wrote a very good opinion article in today’s WSJ, linked here. It’s titled “Moment of Truth on Ukraine and Israel”. I wonder who wrote it. It does not sound like Appeasement Jake. I also wonder why the NYT is not publishing the Tin Man’s opinion article. The Tin Man makes a clear and strong case for providing support to both Ukraine and Israel. It might be too little, too late, for Ukraine, but it’s nice to see the support for Israel. They can still win. Maybe the Tin Man did not submit his opinion article to the NYT. Probably a smart move, then the far left won’t notice that he is supporting Israel.
Actually a lot of stuff is changing in the Tin Man’s rhetoric. He called China, xenophobic. I thought he reserved that type of language for the Orange Mad King I. Remember when he called the Orange Mad King I xenophobic because he called COVID the Wuhan China Flu? He is also trying to out-tariff the Orange Mad King I. He has announced new tariffs on Chinese steel and aluminum yesterday. Who in the deep state is in charge now? Jill?
Markets are slightly higher after another down day for risk assets. Crude oil sold off sharply yesterday and could test the $80 support today. Copper and gold are both higher. Bitcoin is higher today after trading below 60,000 briefly yesterday. Tomorrow is the halving. We get the weekly initial jobless claims number today. It’s expected to be 215,000. Weekly jobless claims have been remarkably stable just above the 200,000 level since the beginning of 2022.
I updated the U.S. Dollar Index, U.S. 10yr yield, WTI crude oil, copper, spot gold, bitcoin, S&P futures and NASDAQ00 futures charts below.
The dollar and interest rates are both a little lower.
Crude oil is lower and could test the support around the $80 level. Gold and copper are both higher and are holding sharp uptrends. Let your winners ride. Bitcoin tested the support around the 59,300 level yesterday. The halving is tomorrow.
The S&P and NASDAQ 100 futures are both a little higher today after another down day yesterday.
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Unless otherwise stated, Bloomberg is the source of all data and charts.
S&P 500 futures are a type of derivative contract that provides a buyer with an investment priced based on the expectation of the S&P 500 Index’s future value. Nasdaq 100 futures are commodities futures products traded within the equity futures sector. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil is a benchmark used by oil markets, representing oil produced in the U.S. Brent Crude Oil is a blend of crude oil recovered from the North Sea in the early 1960s, whose price is used as a benchmark for the commodity's prices. The U.S. dollar index (USDX) is a measure of the value of the U.S. dollar relative to the value of a basket of currencies of the majority of the U.S.'s most significant trading partners. UBS Bloomberg Constant Maturity Commodity Index is a total return rules-based composite benchmark index diversified across commodity components from within specific sectors.
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