MAD Macro - Storm Signals Are Up
A Bit of Heavy Weather Is Brewing
Storm Signals, The Wind Direction Is Changing
The world’s favorite horse riding dictators are joining forces. They are preparing to ride together against the West. Russian President Vladimir Putin and North Korea’s leader, Kim Jong Un, revived their Cold War-era mutual defense pledge on Wednesday, signing a new agreement. Putin denounced the U.S. for its “worldwide neocolonialist dictatorship”. So now, we are the worldwide dictatorship and we haven’t even reelected the Orange Mad King I. It’s time for Jake The Snake to wake up and smell the coffee. Jake’s Obama-era appeasement policies are coming back to bite us on the ass. At one time we had four different manageable problems. Jake The Snake was appeasing them. China, Russia, Iran and North Korea were separate, but unequal problems. Appeasing them did not work. Now we have one very big problem. A true alliance of Russia, China, Iran and North Korea riding together against the liberal democracies of the West. Or as Putin said, “the worldwide neocolonialist dictatorships” of the West. As Admiral Boom said, “the wind direction is changing, storm signals are up, and a bit of heavy weather is brewing”. The WSJ has a good front page article on the growing anti-West alliance, linked here.
There is another good WSJ front page article today about Nvidia, linked here. It’s titled, “Nvidia’s Ascent to Most Valuable Company Has Echoes of Dot-Com Boom”. I would have titled it bubble, not boom. It’s worth reading. There is one very interesting point about the investments AI companies have been making in Nvidia processors. According to Sequoia Capital estimates, $50 billion has been invested in Nvidia’s chips since the boom began by generative-AI startups. That investment has only generated $3 billion in revenue. Just last week Apple and ChatGPT announced that Apple devices will use ChatGPT’s AI. Guess what Apple is paying to use ChatGPT? Zero! Way to go Tim Cook, nice deal. Looks more like a bubble than boom.
We are one week away from the debate between the Tin Man and the Orange Mad King I. Andy Kessler calls the campaign race the “old vs the paroled”. That has a good ring to it. CNN should consider using that as the title of the debate next Thursday, “The Old vs The Paroled”. Titles are important. It’s kind of like the Ali-Foreman fight in Africa, “The Rumble in the Jungle”. I don’t think the woke police would allow that title today. Hopefully there will be some questions about the looming debt crisis during the debate. During Ronnie Reagan’s reign on the Iron Throne an annual deficit equaling 3% of GDP was considered the end of the world. Now, 7% is no big deal. In fact, Janet Yellen calls a 7% deficit a good investment in our future. I wonder when the bond vigilante dragons will come out of their caves? The WSJ Editorial Board has a very good article in today’s opinion pages, linked here. It’s titled, “Soaring U.S. Debt Is a Spending Problem”. I am going to save this article, it has some very good statistics. I included a chart from the article below.
Bubble or boom, the market continues to power higher led by large cap tech. Actually, more precisely, the market is powering higher led by Nvidia. You could call it, Jensanity! The Swiss National Bank surprised the market and cut interest rates today. The Bank of England kept rates unchanged as expected. We get the weekly jobless claims number this morning. It’s expected to be 235,000 vs last week’s surprising jump to 242,000.
I updated the U.S. Dollar Index, U.S. 10yr yield, U.S. 10yr-2yr yield spread, WTI crude oil, NY copper, spot gold, bitcoin, S&P futures and NASDAQ 100 futures charts below.
The dollar is higher on the SNB rate cut and weakness in the Japanese yen. Interest rates are up 1 basis point.
Crude oil and copper are both close to unchanged, gold is a little higher. Bitcoin is also higher after falling below 65,000 on Tuesday.
S&P and NASDAQ 100 futures are higher, new record openings again.
The world’s favorite horse riding dictators are joining forces. They are preparing to ride together against the West. Russian President Vladimir Putin and North Korea’s leader, Kim Jong Un revived their Cold War-era mutual defense pledge on Wednesday, signing a new agreement. Putin denounced the U.S. for its “worldwide neocolonialist dictatorship”. So now, we are the worldwide dictatorship and we haven’t even reelected the Orange Mad King I. It’s time for Jake The Snake to wake up and smell the coffee. Jake’s Obama-era appeasement policies are coming back to bite us on the ass. At one time we had four different manageable problems. Jake The Snake was appeasing them. China, Russia, Iran and North Korea were separate, but unequal problems. Appeasing them did not work. Now we have one very big problem. A true alliance of Russia, China, Iran and North Korea riding together against the liberal democracies of the West. Or as Putin said, “the worldwide neocolonialist dictatorships” of the West. As Admiral Boom said, “the wind direction is changing, storm signals are up, and a bit of heavy weather is brewing”. The WSJ has a good front page article on the growing anti-West alliance, linked here.
There is another good WSJ front page article today about Nvidia, linked here. It’s titled, “Nvidia’s Ascent to Most Valuable Company Has Echoes of Dot-Com Boom”. I would have titled it bubble, not boom. It’s worth reading. There is one very interesting point about the investments AI companies have been making in Nvidia processors. According to Sequoia Capital estimates, $50 billion has been invested in Nvidia’s chips since the boom began by generative-AI startups. That investment has only generated $3 billion in revenue. Just last week Apple and ChatGPT announced that Apple devices will use ChatGPT AI. Guess what Apple is paying to use ChatGPT AI? Zero! Way to go Tim Cook, nice deal. Looks more like a bubble than boom.
We are one week away from the debate between the Tin Man and the Orange Mad King I. Andy Kessler calls the campaign race the “old vs the paroled”. That has a good ring to it. CNN should consider using that as the title of the debate next Thursday, “The Old vs The Paroled”. Titles are important. It’s kind of like the Ali-Foreman fight in Africa, “The Rumble in the Jungle”. I don’t think the woke police would allow that title today. Hopefully there will be some questions about the looming debt crisis during the debate. During Ronnie Reagan’s reign on the Iron Throne an annual deficit equaling 3% of GDP was considered the end of the world. Now, 7% is no big deal. In fact, Janet Yellen calls a 7% deficit a good investment in our future. I wonder when the bond vigilante dragons will come out of their caves? The WSJ Editorial Board as a very good article in today’s opinion pages, linked here. It’s titled “Soaring U.S. Debt Is a Spending Problem”. I am going to save this article, it has some very good statistics. I included a chart from the article below.
Bubble or boom, the market continues to power higher led by large cap tech. Actually, more precisely, the market is powering higher led by Nvidia. You could call it, Jensanity! The Swiss National Bank surprised the market and cut interest rates today. The Bank of England kept rates unchanged as expected. We get the weekly jobless claims number this morning. It’s expected to be 235,000 vs last week’s surprising jump to 242,000.
I updated the U.S. Dollar Index, U.S. 10yr yield, U.S. 10yr-2yr yield spread, WTI crude oil, NY copper, spot gold, bitcoin, S&P futures and NASDAQ 100 futures charts below.
The dollar is higher on the SNB rate cut and weakness in the Japanese yen. Interest rates are up 1 basis point.
Crude oil and copper are both close to unchanged, gold is a little higher. Bitcoin is also higher after falling below 65,000 on Tuesday.
S&P and NASDAQ 100 futures are higher, new record openings again.