MAD Macro - Ray Nostradamus
Ray Nostradamus Predicts Heart Attack
Guys, I Need Help Buying Tulips
Ray Nostradamus Dalio did a long podcast with NYT writer Ross Douthat and host of the “Interesting Times” podcast, linked here. It’s titled “A Legendary Investor on How to Prevent America’s Coming ‘Heart Attack’”. Subtitled, “Why Ray Dalio is bearish on the U.S.” Ross is supposed to be the centrist writer on the NYT staff. The NYT loves to find doom and gloomers to highlight what a monster Trump is. Ray, also referred to as a lifelong Cassandra, has been warning about the decline of the U.S. for a long time. Like the boy who called wolf, the wolf might actually be approaching, now that the U.S. debt exceeded GDP this month. Bloomberg has a new interview with Doubleline Capital’s Jeffrey Gundlach. Jeffrey Gundlach and Ray Dalio have something in common, they are both very strange people. They also share the same doom and gloom outlook for the U.S. debt problem. Interestingly, Jeffrey is doing something about it. He is replacing the higher-coupon Treasuries in his portfolios with lower-coupon issues. He thinks there is a risk that the U.S. government might decide to lower the coupons unilaterally on all outstanding debt, as another way to kick the can down the road. Now that’s a risk I never even thought about. Buy Gold! BTW, I have had a heart attack and there are no warnings, it happens suddenly.
Kool-Aid Mike Saylor might need a little help from his friends. He has been the biggest buyer of bitcoin this year. Despite the recent rally back to $80,000, it’s still down 10% on the year. There have been decent inflows to the bitcoin ETFs recently, but Kool-Aid Mike could still use some help from his friends. $83,000 is the 200-day average and if Kool-Aid Mike got a little help he could push it through the resistance level. Bunker Hunt is cheering him on from the grave.
Trump is having a rough week. Yesterday’s exchange of fire is looking more like a war than a love tap. His 10% global tariffs were ruled illegal. Of course, the NYT newsroom is celebrating Trump’s rough week. One of today’s top NYT headlines is “China Sees a ‘Giant with a Limp’ as U.S. Drains Weapons on War in Iran”. Thank you, NYT, this is not very helpful in front of next week’s Trump-Xi summit. Xi must open his NYT online subscription first thing in the morning every day. It puts a smile on his face and brightens his day.
Markets are higher again this morning despite the shaky ceasefire. Bullet proof markets. Interest rates and the dollar are a little lower. Crude oil is close to unchanged but off the overnight highs. We get the important monthly employment report this morning. Nonfarm payrolls are expected to be 65,000 down from 178,000 last month but the unemployment rate is expected to be unchanged at 4.3%.
I updated the U.S. Dollar Index, U.S. 10yr yield, U.S. 10yr-2yr yield spread, WTI crude oil, NY copper, spot gold, spot silver, NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index, bitcoin, Strategy, S&P futures, NASDAQ 99 futures, and DOW futures charts below.
The dollar and interest rates are slightly lower.
Crude oil is unchanged. Spot gold, silver, and copper are all higher. The NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index should also open higher. Bitcoin is slightly higher and Strategy is due to open unchanged.
S&P, NASDAQ 99 and DOW futures are all higher in front of the employment report.
