MAD Macro - Orange Kool-Aid
Don’t Drink the Orange Kool-Aid
Who Is John Galt?
Jimmy Jones killed 900 people with Kool-Aid. Kool-Aid Mike Saylor may not kill anyone with his orange Kool-Aid, but he might make them poorer and these days that’s not great considering that everything is going up except bitcoin. I’m a bitcoin skeptic. Now that the Strategy DAT business model has been exposed, is it possible that bitcoin could go to zero? Maybe someday the price of gold will be highlighted on the CNBC’s scrolling prices and bitcoin will be gone. One thing for sure, Kool-Aid Mike will live with his tulip picture posting on X forever. Maybe there will be books about Kool-Aid Mike, and his tulip picture will be perfect for the cover. The book title, The Bitcoin Tulip Mania. The WSJ article on this week’s bitcoin decline is linked here. It’s titled, “The Crypto Winter Turns Colder as Bitcoin Extends Its Decline”. I included a chart from the article below.
I have mentioned this before, but the perfect cure for the anti-capitalists in your family is reading Ayn Rand’s Atlas Shrugged, followed immediately by Walter Isaacson’s biography of Elon Musk. The SpaceX IPO next week will be a historic market event. It’s also a form of economic stimulus. It will unlock fortunes to be spent on homes in Florida and NetJets. Investors will be celebrating while Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders will be popping Xanax pills. The WSJ article on the SpaceX IPO is linked here. It’s titled, “Terms Revealed for SpaceX’s Unconventional $75 Billion IPO”.
The Middle East war continues although Israel and Hezbollah might take a few days off. Trump says he will not re-escalate his war with Iran unless U.S. military lives are lost. Hope that’s not a jinx. Condoleezza Rice has an excellent article in today’s WSJ opinion pages, linked here. It’s titled, “What the U.S. Has Accomplished in Iran”. You won’t see her article republished in the NYT. Maybe now that Scott Pelley is gone, 60 Minutes will interview Condi for this week’s show.
Markets are mixed this morning. Tech is down following Broadcom’s disappointing earnings report after yesterday’s market close. Bitcoin is lower and could test the $60,000 support level. We get the weekly initial jobless claims number this morning. It’s expected to be unchanged at 215,000. Tomorrow is the monthly employment report.
I added a chart of bitcoin vs the market from the WSJ article. I updated the U.S. Dollar Index, U.S. 10yr yield, U.S. 10yr-2yr yield spread, WTI crude oil, NY copper, spot gold, spot silver, NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index, bitcoin, Strategy, S&P futures, NASDAQ 99 futures, and DOW futures charts below.
The dollar and interest rates are lower on the Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire news.
WTI crude oil is slightly lower on the news. Copper is unchanged. Spot gold and silver are higher, and the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index should also open higher. Bitcoin is down trading below $63,000, there is some support around the $60,000 level. Strategy is due to open lower.
The S&P and NASDAQ 99 are lower on the Broadcom earnings. The DOW is higher.
