MAD Macro - Moonshot
Can We Land This Market?
Reminiscences of a Stock Operator
“Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful,” Warren Buffett. This market is a moonshot, but can we safely land it like a SpaceX rocket? This is a strange situation in the market because it feels like a blowoff top in the making, but investors are fearful at the same time. Is it greedy to hang on, or is it time to sell? Buffett also said, “Our favorite holding period is forever”. And then there is the issue of selling and paying taxes. Everyday this market rockets higher the capital gains tax bill for selling goes higher. Jesse Livermore would be selling. Of course, there was no capital gains tax in 1929.
Speaking of Jesse Livermore the stock operator, Trump has become a stock operator. The WSJ has an interesting article today, linked here. It’s titled, “How the Trump Administration Became an Activist Investor”. There are a lot of things that Trump does that bother a lot of people. For me, it’s not what bothers the NYT, it’s tariffs and the direct investments into the private sector. Also, the crypto grifting by Dumb Eric and Dumber Don Jr.
“If it moves, tax it. If it keeps moving, regulate it. And if it stops moving, subsidize it.” Ronald Reagan. Apparently now if it computes, tax it. The WSJ has an interesting article today, linked here. It’s titled, “What Is a ‘Compute Tax’ and Why Is the Idea Gaining Traction?”
Markets are unchanged after yesterday’s moonshot, or maybe yesterday was the blowoff top. Sell in May and go away? The dollar is making new recent lows and gold is higher. Bitcoin is lower after testing the 200-day resistance level yesterday. Maybe buying more gold is a way of hedging the market blowoff top risk. We get the weekly jobless claims number this morning. It’s expected to be 205,000 up from last week’s 189,000. Tomorrow, we get the important monthly employment report. Nonfarm payrolls are expected to rise by 75,000 down from 178,000 in March. The unemployment rate is expected to be unchanged at 4.3%.
I updated the U.S Dollar Index, U.S. 10yr yield, U.S. 10yr-2yr yield spread, WTI crude oil, NY copper, spot gold, spot silver, NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index, bitcoin, Strategy, S&P futures, NASDAQ 99 futures, and DOW futures charts below.
The dollar and interest rates are slightly lower after falling sharply yesterday as crude oil prices fell.
Crude oil is a little lower after falling sharply yesterday. Spot gold, silver, and copper are all higher. The NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index should also open higher. Bitcoin is lower and Strategy is due to open lower.
S&P, NASDAQ 99 and DOW futures are all close to unchanged.
