MAD Macro - Is That the White Flag?
Ayatollah Waves the White Flag
Dammit, What Do We Do Now?
The Next MAD Macro Will Be Monday, June 23rd.
Bibi is winning and the Ayatollah is waving the white flag. That’s a big problem for Russia, China and North Korea. That was not the plan. Russia was supposed to win in Ukraine and Iran was supposed to win in the Middle East. Then China was going to take Taiwan and North Korea was planning on taking over South Korea. Now what do they do? It’s time for them to punt. The West owes Bibi some gratitude for saving the world from China, Russia, Iran and North Korea. Bibi has destroyed Iran in a few days. Don’t mess with Bibi. Now Trump has rushed back to Washington, DC, so he can join Israel, the winning team. Trump says he is working on a bigger Middle East deal. I am guessing it’s Iranian regime change. Israel took a big gamble and it worked beyond anyone’s expectations. This is the art of deterrence, in sharp contrast to Jake the Snake Sullivan’s art of appeasement. Bibi’s gamble might put China, Russia and North Korea back on the defense as they are forced to punt. Walter Russell Mead has a good opinion article in today’s WSJ, linked here. It’s titled, “Netanyahu Flips the Script”.
Michael Saylor bought another $1 billion in bitcoin last week. He bought 10,100 bitcoin spending $1.05 billion. Strategy is now the proud owner of 592,100 bitcoin at an average price of $70,666. It’s time for Michael Saylor to have an appropriate nickname. I am going with Kool-Aid Mike. As in Jimmy Jones Kool-Aid. I think Michael drank the bitcoin Kool-Aid and it’s going to kill him and his Strategy followers.
Trump was supposed to make some trade deals at the G7. There are no trade deals to be had, except with the U.K. Trump said he was not close with either the EU or Canada. Tariffs still loom over the global economy and we still need an agreement on the Big Beautiful Bill in Washington. Trump wants the Fed to ease tomorrow and they are not expected to ease. Markets have been climbing a very steep wall of worry. We might have reached the top yesterday. Markets are a little lower today after a retest of the recent highs yesterday.
I added an interesting chart on U.S. dependence on metals imports. I updated the U.S. Dollar Index, U.S. 10yr yield, U.S. 10yr-2yr yield spread, WTI crude oil, NY copper, spot gold, NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index, bitcoin, Strategy, S&P futures, NASDAQ 99 futures and DOW futures charts below.
The dollar is close to unchanged and interest rates are slightly lower after rising yesterday.
Crude oil is higher and copper is unchanged. Spot gold is slightly higher and the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index should open higher. Bitcoin is lower with other risk assets. Strategy is due to open lower.
S&P, NASDAQ 99 and DOW futures are all lower this morning.
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Unless otherwise stated, Bloomberg is the source of all data and charts.
S&P 500 futures are a type of derivative contract that provides a buyer with an investment priced based on the expectation of the S&P 500 Index’s future value. Nasdaq 100 futures are commodities futures products traded within the equity futures sector. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil is a benchmark used by oil markets, representing oil produced in the U.S. Brent Crude Oil is a blend of crude oil recovered from the North Sea in the early 1960s, whose price is used as a benchmark for the commodity's prices. The U.S. dollar index (USDX) is a measure of the value of the U.S. dollar relative to the value of a basket of currencies of the majority of the U.S.'s most significant trading partners. UBS Bloomberg Constant Maturity Commodity Index is a total return rules-based composite benchmark index diversified across commodity components from within specific sectors. Index performance is not illustrative of fund performance. It is not possible to invest directly in an index.
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