MAD Macro - Friar Tuck and Robinhood
MAD Macro - Friar Tuck and Robinhood
SBF (Sam Bankman-Fried) seems to be the only person left standing in the Crypto World. SBF owns over 7% of Robinhood and is considering additional investments or partnerships with Robinhood. He used real money to buy his stake in Robinhood. It’s a little like Friar Tuck and his Merry Men joining up with Robinhood, it’s a natural. The nice thing about private company valuations is they don’t move around like the market. Last time FTX was valued in January (nice timing SBF) Softbank invested at a $32 billion valuation. I wonder what it would be today. SBF is buying, lending and market making. He looks like the JP Morgan of Crypto. If he does want to be JP Morgan he will need to learn how to tie lace-up shoes.
G7 continues to look like the gang that can’t shoot straight. They want to cap Russian crude oil prices and yesterday they said they also want to cap Russian natural gas prices. Nice idea, but how? It looks like Russia has what the world needs. It looks like a seller’s market, not a buyer’s market. There was one interesting moment yesterday. Emmanuel Macron, President of France, felt the need to mansplain energy fundamentals to Joe Biden. He explained that Saudi Arabia and the U.A.E are running out of crude oil. So why did he need to explain the obvious to Biden? Maybe he was explaining that the U.S. is the new swing producer or could be. Or maybe he was being nice and wanted to save Biden a trip to the Middle East in July. After all, the French know it’s a bad idea to go to the Middle East in the summer. The Riviera is much better, especially for the elderly.
Risk assets are slightly higher today after yesterday’s quiet trading day. Thursday is month-end and quarter-end. There is expected to be some equity buying for the quarter-end rebalancing, which could begin today.
I updated the S&P futures, NASDAQ 100 futures, U.S. 10yr yield, WTI crude oil, bitcoin and spot gold charts below.
S&P and NASDAQ 100 futures are higher overnight but still trading within yesterday’s trading range.
U.S. 10yr yields are rising again which could hold back tech stocks.
WTI crude oil is higher today on continued supply concerns and doubts that the G7 have a workable energy plan.
Bitcoin is trading in a narrow range around the 20,000 level. The chart looks like it is forming another possible bear flag similar to the consolidation around the 30,000 level.
Spot gold is still stuck in a narrow trading range.
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S&P 500 futures are a type of derivative contract that provides a buyer with an investment priced based on the expectation of the S&P 500 Index’s future value. Nasdaq 100 futures are commodities futures products traded within the equity futures sector. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil is a benchmark used by oil markets, representing oil produced in the U.S. Brent Crude Oil is a blend of crude oil recovered from the North Sea in the early 1960s, whose price is used as a benchmark for the commodity's prices. The U.S. dollar index (USDX) is a measure of the value of the U.S. dollar relative to the value of a basket of currencies of the majority of the U.S.'s most significant trading partners. UBS Bloomberg Constant Maturity Commodity Index is a total return rules-based composite benchmark index diversified across commodity components from within specific sectors.
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