MAD Macro - Dirty Diapers
Dirty Diapers at the French Laundry
Really, You Wrote What You Were Thinking?
The Next MAD Macro will be Wednesday 5/13
Gavin Newsom, aka Sparkle Beach Ken, is going to give out free diapers. I was thinking, why not Depends for the elderly? I realize the People’s Republic of California wants to become socialist but why start with diapers? They should start with Depends to keep the older rich people from moving. The rich people are not paying their fair share, so raise their taxes but give them free diapers. Maybe they will stay and not notice. As for the free diaper policy, I’m not sure 400 free diapers will increase the population of the People’s Republic of California. But Sparkle Beach Gavin, you go, maybe free dirty diapers will take you to the White House. If not, you can always go back to the French Laundry for dinner with Nancy Pelosi at the taxpayers’ expense. Paulie Pelosi should pick up the tab, but unfortunately, he has lost his edge in the markets. Apparently, without the inside info from Nancy, he is not that good at picking stocks. Poor Nancy, she thought Paulie was a market savant.
Who writes down their personal thoughts about committing a crime? That’s the problem with the digital world. You write it down to yourself in an email and it lasts forever. Greg Brockman actually kept a diary about committing a crime in the forever digital world. Who does that? At least Butch Cassidy and the Sundance Kid did not write notes before they robbed a bank. The WSJ had a very good article over the weekend by Ben Cohen on the Musk-OpenAI trial, linked here. It’s titled, “The Secret Diary That Has Spilled Into the Musk vs. OpenAI Feud.” No one seems worried about this trial, but what if Elon wins? That might be the pin that pops the AI bubble. There is another interesting WSJ article on OpenAI, linked here. It’s titled, “How a Job at OpenAI Became the Greatest Lottery Ticket of the AI Boom”. Apparently, about 75 employees have sold up to $30 miiillion each of OpenAI stock during the funding rounds. Good news for Gavin, more people to tax and give free diapers to.
Kool-Aid Mike Saylor will report his bitcoin buying from last week later this morning. So far, he has not been able to buy enough bitcoin to push the price above the 200-day average. Maybe this week he will succeed. Bunker Hunt is cheering him on from the grave and Adam Satoshi Black is cheering him on from Sliema, Malta.
Markets are mixed this morning. Trump said that the Iranian response to the U.S. proposal was unworkable. So, the peace talks will drag on while Trump heads to China this week. It could be an interesting week of geopolitical news. Personally, I am surprised that the Trump-Xi summit is actually taking place. China is supporting both Russia and Iran in their wars against the West. I guess Trump thinks it’s a good idea to keep our enemies even closer than our friends. Crude oil is up 3% and the market is due to open slightly lower. Tomorrow, we get the April CPI inflation report. It’s expected to be bad news, up 3.7% year-over-year vs 3.3% in March.
I added an interesting chart of the DOW Jones U.S. Thematic Market Neutral Momentum Index and updated the U.S. Dollar Index, U.S. 10yr yield, U.S. 10yr-2yr yield spread, WTI crude oil, NY copper, spot gold, spot silver, NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index, bitcoin, Strategy, S&P futures, NASDAQ 99 futures, and DOW futures charts below.
The dollar and interest rates are slightly higher.
Crude oil is higher but off of the overnight highs of $100. Copper is higher. Spot gold is lower and silver is unchanged. The NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index should open slightly lower. Bitcoin is trading around $81,000 and the resistance is around $83,000 to $83,500. Strategy is due unchanged.
The S&P, NASDAQ 99 and DOW futures are all unchanged to a little lower.
