MAD Macro - Deja Vu 1968 Columbia University
1968 in Black and White, 2024 in Color
I Took His Money, I Gagged Him, I Will Jail Him
Yogi Berra, “It’s like déjà vu all over again.” Campus protests re-emerge from the late 1960’s like locusts. There are a few differences. Everything is in color this time. Funny, all of the tents are the same color. In the 1960’s the students were protesting against war and for peace now they are protesting against peace in support of a war against Israel. In 1968, on the Columbus University campus, they were chanting “Hell No, I Won’t Go”. In 2024 on the Columbus University campus they are chanting, “From The River To The Sea”. In 1968 they knew what “Hell No, I Won’t Go” meant. In 2024 it’s not clear they understand what “From The River To The Sea” means. In 1968 you had to take the SAT tests to get into Columbia. In 2024 you don’t need to. Maybe it’s time for Columbia to require SAT testing again.
There was a new Bloomberg poll out yesterday. Apparently the Tin Man’s post State of the Union speech bump in the polls has faded. The poll results had some interesting information. Sadly, the press did not like the results so they took down all of the stories. I went to look for the details yesterday afternoon and could not find them anywhere on Bloomberg. The poll showed that the Orange Mad King I has strengthened his lead in the swing states. But that was not the interesting part. The poll showed that the economy and inflation are the problem. Most Americans think the economy and inflation will be worse later this year. Paul Krugman must be going crazy. I wonder what most Americans are seeing or feeling in the economy and inflation that the economic statistics are not showing. Unemployment is historically very low, inflation is falling and the economy is strong. Maybe the American people can see that government spending is supporting the economy and we are heading over a fiscal cliff. The Tin Man is not worried about the polls. He has his NY friends taking the Orange Mad King I’s money, gagging him in court and hopefully putting him in prison.
Markets were mixed yesterday but are due lower today on Meta’s earnings report. Mark is spending a lot of money on developing AI and investors are wondering how he will make money on AI. Jenson Huang and Nvidia are definitely making money from everyone developing AI. The question is who will make money after investing in developing AI models. Commodities continue to trend higher and today there is a potential megamerger in the mining industry. BHP has offered to buy rival Anglo American. I don’t think Lina Khan can stop this one, both are foreign companies. BHP wants more copper. I think copper is going higher. I guess BHP also thinks copper is going higher.
I updated the U.S. Dollar Index, Japanese yen, U.S. 10yr yield, U.S. 10yr-2yr yield spread, WTI crude oil, copper, spot gold, bitcoin, bitcoin weekly, S&P futures and NASDAQ 100 futures charts below.
The dollar is a little lower but the yen is also lower. Dollar/yen is above 155 which was supposed to be a red line in the sand for the Bank of Japan. No sign of intervention. Maybe they think Jay will ease to save democracy. Interest rates are close to unchanged and the curve is a little steeper.
Crude oil is unchanged. Gold and copper are higher. Bitcoin is a little lower. I included the bitcoin weekly chart for perspective. Bitcoin has support around the 59,000 level.
Both S&P and NASDAQ 100 futures are lower on the Meta earning report.
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Unless otherwise stated, Bloomberg is the source of all data and charts.
S&P 500 futures are a type of derivative contract that provides a buyer with an investment priced based on the expectation of the S&P 500 Index’s future value. Nasdaq 100 futures are commodities futures products traded within the equity futures sector. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil is a benchmark used by oil markets, representing oil produced in the U.S. Brent Crude Oil is a blend of crude oil recovered from the North Sea in the early 1960s, whose price is used as a benchmark for the commodity's prices. The U.S. dollar index (USDX) is a measure of the value of the U.S. dollar relative to the value of a basket of currencies of the majority of the U.S.'s most significant trading partners. UBS Bloomberg Constant Maturity Commodity Index is a total return rules-based composite benchmark index diversified across commodity components from within specific sectors.
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